The Villans and the Magpies have not sustained the form that saw them reach the Champions League and are dropping back down the Premier League table
In the 21st century, finishing inside the Premier League's top four can be celebrated as much as winning the whole thing altogether. The riches of qualifying for the Champions League can prove transformative.
That's what took Tottenham from just another top-flight team to a member of the 'Big Six'. Since their first qualification in 2010, only three sides from beyond that bracket have cracked the top four – 2015-16 champions Leicester City, Newcastle United in 2022-23, and Aston Villa in 2023-24.
It's proven a pretty closed shop towards the top of the table. The views from the summit's peak are mostly exclusive and often a once-in-a-generation look for the outsider.
As Newcastle and Villa are discovering this season, it's one thing to crash the Champions League party, but another to stay and make yourself feel welcome. Both have stumbled through the campaign and are unlikely to rank fourth or higher come May. But just why have they found it so hard to maintain that previously upward trajectory?
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Follow GOAL on WhatsApp! 🟢📱AFPLacking element of surprise
"We have to try to keep balance. I know this year is going to be more difficult," Villa boss Unai Emery said after Sunday's 3-0 loss away at Chelsea, taking his side's recent record to eight games without a win in all competitions. "We are going to try to recover our confidence and everything we are doing, as well as trying to understand this year is more difficult. We need points, now thinking of the top eight and if we want to get into the top five. We have to come back.
"This year has been different because we are not a surprise like last year. They [opposition teams] don't have doubts now like they had last year. We were being consistent last year with the same style and a lot of the same players. This year, a lot of teams are facing us thinking we are a top-seven opponent. We have to keep calm, thinking of the next match and trying to cut this spell."
On the pitch, that's the long and short of Villa and Newcastle's problems. There hasn't been enough evolution to match their previously striding progress up the table. Life's very different when you're the hunter rather than the hunted.
It's why Sir Alex Ferguson and Pep Guardiola were and have been able to have such extensive legacies – they set tactical trends and adapted to them as well, forever chopping and changing to suit the needs of the contemporary game.
AdvertisementAFPLightning in a bottle?
Such has been Newcastle and Villa's lack of transformation from finishing fourth that you start to question how they even reached the Champions League in the first place. Were they really that much better than some of the challengers and pretenders from those respective seasons?
It's easy to get swept up in a story or narrative when wins are falling and points and stacking up. Both Newcastle and Villa weren't expected to challenge for a spot in the top four, and it was a delightful treat when they made that leap early.
But there's every possibility that these were simply two good-not-great teams who went on a tear and put some results together to the extent they leapfrogged the slackers in the 'Big Six'. You can only get so far without star power in the Premier League.
Remember, before the 'Big Six', we had the 'Big Four' – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United. All of those remain established at the top, with City's Abu Dhabi Group-backed spending propelling them into the discussion. The only outliers are Tottenham, who have followed a plan of sustainability and marginal improvement, as well as supposedly forgoing other competitions in pursuit of Champions League money – this particular element has left the fanbase divided on the work of chairman Daniel Levy.
That's the line the outsiders have to tread. Without freedom to spend millions with little repercussion (at least to this point), you need to be supremely focused and driven to reach the top four and stay there.
Getty Images SportSquads not built to cope
Obviously every top-half Premier League team could prove hard to stop in their tracks if they had all 25 players in their first team fit and fresh for a whole season, but that's not how football works. It's a squad game.
With the calendar full to the brim and on the brink of overflowing already, there's no respite for the game's best athletes. If you're indispensable, then you're likely undroppable week to week.
That's especially true in teams trying to punch above their weight. It's difficult enough as is trying to put together 11 players who can challenge for major honours or a high position in the standings, let alone double that tally.
The gap between your best starters and your worst cannot be a massive chasm. The big dogs will eat you up. Newcastle barely survived their injury crisis of 2023-24 as it derailed their form domestically and on the continent, while Villa's barren run has Emery scrambling for solutions, as calm as he has preached he is and needs to be.
Balancing Premier League and European campaigns with a small roster is tough. It's much easier with mass rotation or without the burden of extra fixtures.
Getty Images SportPSR concerns
Most Newcastle and Villa fans will point to restrictions over their transfer activity for their decline. To which, consider this a rebuttal – stop blowing money up the wall, guys.
Villa were prevalent spenders even before Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR) came into effect, somehow managing to stray close to the red despite the £100 million sale of Jack Grealish. Which, to be fair, is quite remarkable and hard to bounce back from, so well done.
The Magpies splashed the cash upon the Saudi PIF takeover in 2021, which helped them break free from relegation battles and into a new tomorrow. That's fine if it's within your means, which they were in a hassle to ensure they were by the end of June 2024.
PSR isn't fool proof and there should probably be some amendments to stop the trading of homegrown assets for the sake of staying within limits, to ensure youngsters aren't just bargaining chips in the name of 'pure profit'.
Newcastle were forced to sell promising midfielder Elliot Anderson to Nottingham Forest, where he is now thriving and sitting above his boyhood side in the table. Meanwhile, Villa pushed Douglas Luiz out the door to Juventus in part-exchange for two young players, Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea, who have already left on loan. The best players at St James' Park and Villa Park were there for the rise and didn't just meet them at the peak.